Paper - Dynamic Modelling of Key Resources common to WP3 Case Studies - 7 papers [D51]

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Work Package 3 (WP3) ultimately aims to contribute to the Objective 2 of the Converge Project – “to test convergence and divergence as a frame for a holistic indicator framework”. In the past 3 years, workshops were undertaken in 3 test communities, in partnership with Work Package 7 (lead by the University of Iceland). The test communities were: The country region Iceland; Tirunelveli and Tutticorin districts, Tamil Nadu, India; Bristol UK.

In these workshops, participants in the first instance learned to draw basic systems models (Causal loop diagrams) of their own interpretations and expertiese of the local food sector. It was envisaged that from these, dynamic models could be built and used to deduce case-specific indicators, and prioritised convergent actions towards sustainability. The process underlying this in itself being an output of this workpackage - the Convergence Indicator Process. As work progressed, and Model formulation was beginning with a view to prepare for Dynamic modelling and integrated scenario analysis, an attempt was made to build a dynamic model for the Icelandic case study based on the conceptual model developed (see D19 – Models that enable decision support for complex multi-dimentinal policy strategies). However, it was realized at this stage that there was a lack of case specific data, which was required to run the dynamic model that had been developed. The main reasons behind the lack of data were:

  • it is not possible to measure some parameters;
  • some parameters are not currently measured therefore data sets do not exist;
  • some parameters are measured but not shared (or partly shared but privately owned and therefor costly)

Under these circumstances and after consultations with the project coordinators, WP3 decided not to continue with dynamic modelling of the specific food systems in particular case studies (Iceland, Bristol-UK and Tirunelveli-India), rather that focus would be on the dynamic modelling of the key natural resources that are common to all case regions and have crucial impacts on the food system on global level. Thus, WP3 performed dynamic modelling studies looking at key minerals and metals in food production and supply chain.

The results are provided here as seven extra deliverables. Most have been published or are in the process of peer review.

Together they comprise an overwhelming case for a step-change in recycling and for the importance of this to both current and Future Generations. This has also changed the perspective of Convergence to include resources much more centrally in addition to the bio-capacity of the Earth’s system stressed in the ‘Boundaries’ concept. 

 

 

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